Overview
Not everyone is an intuitive as you are, so today you will have to take the predictions of one of your friends with a grain of salt. They may be so positive of their guesstimate that they are willing to bet money on it, but you know better. If this friend is actually thinking of gambling on this idea, do your best to help them see things more conservatively. Otherwise, let them learn the fallacy of their hunches on their own. It will teach them an important lesson.
