Can Hemlines Really Predict the Economy?

Hemlines are slowly on the rise.Experts believe their wardrobes can be the best recession indicator. It's been said that financial pressure yields gravity-defying heels as a means for escapism with stiletto heights rising during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the oil crisis in the 1970s, the dotcom bubble burst in the 2000s, and the current economic crisis. OK, so maybe they're on to something. Skirt lengths are another supposed psychic garment which can predict the size of our wallets, and Business Insider monitored the hemlines at New York Fashion Week's fall 2012 to weigh in. And while it seems skirts are getting shorter, their results seem somewhat inconclusive.

In the 1920s, economist George Taylor created with the hemline index, observing that skirts got longer as the economy slowed. Hemlines were low in the the '30s, shot up in the '60s, and dropped back down in the '70s. But skirt lengths have been less definable in recent decades. Maxi dresses and knee length skirts have definitely become more prevalent in the last few years, but like much of fashion these days, the current hemline options are limitless.

"Like the stock markets, hemlines are going up and down daily and seasonally," Ken Downing, head of womenswear at Neiman Marcus told Business Insider. But their calculations comparing hemlines from 25 top influential designers deduce that promising financial times are down the road. Per Business Insider, "The BI Hemline Index is calculated by measuring hem length as a percentage of the length from floor to waistline. The shorter the hemline, the higher the index. Overall, average hemlines in 2012 registered a 44.38 on the index, up from 35.04 for the Fall/Winter 2011 collections."

While 80% of designers showed shorter hemlines, most experts thought this kind of analysis was bogus. "It's interesting, as a fashion director I no longer believe hemlines are a conversation on trend because its so particular to a designer and their point of view," Downing told Business Insider. "We are seeing hemlines below the knee, at the knee, and some that are still quite short." Amanda Brooks, fashion director at Barney's, agreed. "I would say in terms of the dress or skirt silhouette, it's kind of anything goes right now. I wouldn't say we're seeing super short, to me what's looking the most fresh personally is this mid-calf with a big slit up the front or an open vent." Jeffrey Monteiro, the creative director of Bill Blass, also concurred. "For me it's just proportion. Let's make it longer, let's make it shorter, and once we find a proportion we like we just keep going with it."

So while stats suggest shorter hemlines are coming soon, designers, buyers and industry insiders don't feel this is a calculated move if it's really happening. While we do see certain patterns in life--and in fashion--perhaps where hemlines fall is pure coincidence. Or maybe, like us, women enjoy changing things up from day to day wearing knee length to work, minis at night, and maxis on the weekend. After all, if the economy doesn't pick up we still have a whole closet full of varied options to choose from.

Do you believe in the hemline index?

Related links:
Daily Outfit Idea: Lower Your Hemline
Dangerous high heels: Women's shoes reach hazardous heights during the recession
Nail polish is the new lipstick: high sales mark new recession indicator